Scenario War Room

This is a single-point-of-failure situation. The dependency itself is the root risk regardless of outcome.

Scenario Analysis:

Scenario A — They leave in 30 days (45% probability)

• ARR impact: $1.8M → risk of missing $3M by $400-600K (deals in late stage need relationship continuity)
• Pipeline at risk: deals where only VP has executive sponsor relationships
• Cascade: Team morale drops, 1-2 AEs may follow, Q1 hiring sets you back 6 months

Scenario B — They stay but disengaged (35% probability)

• Worst scenario: physically present, mentally gone
• Pipeline stalls, new logo acquisition drops, team senses it
• Mitigation: harder to detect, need weekly 1:1s with direct asks

Scenario C — They stay, fully committed (20% probability)

• Requires: retention package AND addressing root cause (equity refresh? title change? frustration with resources?)

Immediate Actions (this week, in order):

1. Audit the pipeline — list every deal >$15K where VP is sole executive contact. Assign co-coverage NOW.
2. Have the direct conversation — ask directly: "Are you considering leaving?" Ambiguity is more damaging than the answer.
3. Document the playbook — even if they stay, you have a dependency that will hurt you in due diligence
4. Retention offer math — what equity refresh makes sense vs. cost of a 6-month sales void?

How much of your $3M target is dependent on deals currently in late stage vs. new pipeline?

At $8M ARR with deteriorating macro conditions, the goal of a war room session is to exit with pre-committed decisions — not a plan to make decisions later. The value is speed: when the downside scenario arrives, you execute rather than deliberate.

The Three-Scenario Structure

Model exactly three scenarios. More creates false precision; fewer misses the range.

Base case: Current trajectory ±10%. Growth continues at current rate, churn stays flat, sales cycle extends by 15%. This is your operating plan with mild headwinds — what you'd present to the board in a normal quarter.

Downside: 30% growth miss against plan, churn increases 20% (predominantly SMB and VC-backed startup customers). Sales cycle extends 30%. New logo acquisition slows as procurement freezes take hold. This is the scenario that's uncomfortable but survivable.

Severe downside: Flat growth (net new ARR = 0), churn increases 35%, significant customers request payment deferrals or downgrades. This scenario stress-tests whether the company can reach default alive on its own trajectory.

Key Levers to Model

For each scenario, calculate:

Build this in a spreadsheet, not in slides. Scenarios need to be live models you can adjust in the meeting, not static snapshots.

The Default Alive Calculation

Paul Graham's default alive question: on your current trajectory, does the company reach profitability before it runs out of money?

The formula: (Current Cash) / (Monthly Burn Rate) = Runway in months. If runway > time to profitability at current growth rate, you're default alive. If not, you need external capital or a burn reduction.

Run this calculation for all three scenarios. The severe downside scenario will almost certainly show you're not default alive without intervention — that's the point. It forces the board conversation about which levers you're willing to pull and at what trigger points.

Pre-Committed Decision Triggers

The most important output of the war room session is a trigger table: specific metrics that automatically unlock specific decisions. This removes the hardest part of downside execution — making painful calls in real time while you're also trying to run the company.

Example trigger table:

The trigger levels are debated and agreed in the war room. The actions are pre-committed. When a trigger is hit, no new meeting is required — you execute.

Stress-Testing the Customer Base

Not all customers are equally at risk. Segment your ARR by customer vulnerability:

High risk in a downturn:

• SMB customers (sub-$10K ACV) — fastest to churn when budgets tighten
• VC-backed startups — extending runway means cutting SaaS spend
• Customers with low engagement scores (usage below adoption threshold)
• Customers in consumer, media, or retail (most cyclical verticals)

Lower risk:

• Customers on multi-year contracts
• Regulated industries (financial services, healthcare) — procurement is slower to cut
• Customers where your tool is operationally embedded (data pipelines, compliance workflows)

Calculate what % of ARR is high-risk. At $8M ARR, if 30% is high-risk and your severe downside churn assumption is 35% of high-risk, that's roughly $840K ARR at risk — a concrete number to defend against in your financial model.

The War Room Brief Output

The session produces one document, one page, shared with the board before the next board meeting:

SCENARIO WAR ROOM BRIEF — [Date]

Current state: $8M ARR, $[X]K MRR, [Y] months runway

Scenario assumptions:
  Base: [3 key assumptions]
  Downside: [3 key assumptions]
  Severe: [3 key assumptions]

Runway by scenario:
  Base: [X] months
  Downside: [Y] months
  Severe: [Z] months

Pre-committed decisions (trigger table): [attached]

Customer base risk assessment:
  High-risk ARR: $[X]K ([Y]% of total)
  Top 5 at-risk accounts: [listed with owner and save plan]

Actions before next board meeting:
  1. [Owner] [Action] [Due date]
  2. ...

The brief is a forcing function. Building it requires the team to actually agree on the numbers, which is where the real value of the session lives. Disagreements about trigger levels and pre-committed actions surface in the room — not six months later when you're under pressure and time-constrained.